Consider cosmic distances. How much time do we really buy someone if we make SI within decades? A huge civ where the reaction time matters is already pretty capable and the odds don’t improve much for them. On the other hand, the risk of a strong, directed signal beacon is large. We expose ourselves AND undermine ourselves if we make it through.
EDIT: I disagree with logic that signal would slow down an expansive Earth-bound SI. Might as well make it hurry up.
Could be a lot of time. The Andromeda galaxy is 2.5 million light years away from Earth. Say an AI takes over next year and sends a virus to a civilization in this galaxy that would successfully take over if humans didn’t first issue a warning. Because of the warning the Earth Paperclip maximizer has to send a ship to the Andromeda civilization to take over, and say the ship goes at 90% of the speed of light. That gives the Andromeda civilization 280,000 years between when they get humanity’s warning message and when the paperclip maximizer’s ship arrives. During that time the Andromeda civilization will hopefully upgrade its defenses to be strong enough to resist the ship, and then thank humanity by avenging us if the paperclip maximizer has exterminated humanity.
Our warning message can be received in many points “simultaneously”—so they don’t need to spend more time exchanging information across Andromeda galaxy and can start preparing locally.
Consider cosmic distances. How much time do we really buy someone if we make SI within decades? A huge civ where the reaction time matters is already pretty capable and the odds don’t improve much for them. On the other hand, the risk of a strong, directed signal beacon is large. We expose ourselves AND undermine ourselves if we make it through.
EDIT: I disagree with logic that signal would slow down an expansive Earth-bound SI. Might as well make it hurry up.
Could be a lot of time. The Andromeda galaxy is 2.5 million light years away from Earth. Say an AI takes over next year and sends a virus to a civilization in this galaxy that would successfully take over if humans didn’t first issue a warning. Because of the warning the Earth Paperclip maximizer has to send a ship to the Andromeda civilization to take over, and say the ship goes at 90% of the speed of light. That gives the Andromeda civilization 280,000 years between when they get humanity’s warning message and when the paperclip maximizer’s ship arrives. During that time the Andromeda civilization will hopefully upgrade its defenses to be strong enough to resist the ship, and then thank humanity by avenging us if the paperclip maximizer has exterminated humanity.
That’s about one round trip across the Andromeda galaxy at the speed of light.
It’s not really like that. It’s more like two expanding spheres at sub-lightspeed inside wider spheres of info at lightspeed.
The bad AI sphere(s) meets the good AI sphere(s) somewhere. If they meet deep inside the Andromeda galaxy, bad AI already has some clear advantage.
Or did I go wrong somewhere? These are complex assumptions.
Our warning message can be received in many points “simultaneously”—so they don’t need to spend more time exchanging information across Andromeda galaxy and can start preparing locally.
The message we send goes at the speed of light. If the AI has to send ships to conquer it probably has to go slower than the speed of light.
This video explains faster
https://youtu.be/fVrUNuADkHI?si=cpiFri1vmoaKeaXy