I think it was never plausible that more than 99% of alien civilizations wipe themselves out with engineered pandemics before they start spreading to the stars. As Scott argues, the Great Filter needs to explain why none of the ~10^18 planets in our past lightcone developed an interstellar civilization that could have colonized us, so something like pandemics are not nearly big enough risk to be plausible filter.
If AI would be 100 years from 2014, but the progress in biotech, cheap nukes, drones etc continues, there was a possibility of large global system crisis which can be different in different civilizations but almost inevitably result in collapse.
I think this has been pretty clear for a while now. See Scott’s arguments from 2014.
It was less clear for me in 2014, as I expected significant chance of large (engineered) pandemics before AI.
I think it was never plausible that more than 99% of alien civilizations wipe themselves out with engineered pandemics before they start spreading to the stars. As Scott argues, the Great Filter needs to explain why none of the ~10^18 planets in our past lightcone developed an interstellar civilization that could have colonized us, so something like pandemics are not nearly big enough risk to be plausible filter.
If AI would be 100 years from 2014, but the progress in biotech, cheap nukes, drones etc continues, there was a possibility of large global system crisis which can be different in different civilizations but almost inevitably result in collapse.