Also, for the record, I’d volunteer my time to talk with anyone who is currently doing capabilities research at an AI research group, or who is seriously considering doing that, and try to explain why they shouldn’t but in a way that is kind and open and understanding. (I don’t think I have a legible track record of doing this, but I would unaccountably claim that there’s a significant chance I’d be good at this for a substantial subset of such people.)
There’s this one Upton Sinclair quote I think about a lot in this context. I imagine you’ve seen it?
Chewing it over more, I think you may have neglected to consider Newcomblike self-deception as a possible factor in Sinclair’s razor. It’s not necessary for the person to be lying about what they believe, or for them to have consciously convinced themselves of that lie. They can just have a big convenient cognitive blind spot.
Well, I meant that to be included under “has really convinced themselves”, where you’re proposing that they could have convinced themselves unconsciously. (Which I agree happens, via a bunch of little ugh fields and piecemeal distorted-world construction.)
Feel free to make an edit to clarify though, it’s a wiki!
There’s this one Upton Sinclair quote I think about a lot in this context. I imagine you’ve seen it?
I wrote the wiki entry on it :) https://www.lesswrong.com/w/sinclair-s-razor
Chewing it over more, I think you may have neglected to consider Newcomblike self-deception as a possible factor in Sinclair’s razor. It’s not necessary for the person to be lying about what they believe, or for them to have consciously convinced themselves of that lie. They can just have a big convenient cognitive blind spot.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ht4JZtxngKwuQ7cDC/tsvibt-s-shortform?commentId=WsrmFhuysbmJ3xiPm
Well, I meant that to be included under “has really convinced themselves”, where you’re proposing that they could have convinced themselves unconsciously. (Which I agree happens, via a bunch of little ugh fields and piecemeal distorted-world construction.)
Feel free to make an edit to clarify though, it’s a wiki!