Elon Musk estimated a 10% chance of success for both Tesla and SpaceX. Those might have been good estimates.
Peter Thiel talks about how one of the reasons that the PayPal mafia is so successful is that they all learned that success is possible but really hard. If you pursue a very difficult idea and know you have a 10% chance of success you really have to give it all and know that if you slack you won’t succeed.
Elon Musk estimated a 10% chance of success for both Tesla and SpaceX. Those might have been good estimates.
Peter Thiel talks about how one of the reasons that the PayPal mafia is so successful is that they all learned that success is possible but really hard. If you pursue a very difficult idea and know you have a 10% chance of success you really have to give it all and know that if you slack you won’t succeed.