Bumblepox, Scramblepox (always present in same sector OR Azeru in adjacent sector
Gurglepox (always present in same sector OR Dankon Ground in opposite sector)
Chucklepox (Danny Nova in same sector for about half of cures. All other cases Lomerius Xardus was present somewhere (todo: investigate if more patterns than mere presence))
Rumblepox (suspiciously high ratio of presence/absence in Calderia when cured, but plenty more cases unexplained—TODO: explain more)
Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome (on weak evidence, see below)
Azeru for curing Bumblepox, Scramblepox (see Danny Nova)
Lomerius Xardus for curing Chucklepox (see Danny Nova)
Boltholopew and Moon Finder, collectively, for curing Disease Syndrome, Parachordia, Problems Disorder (each one positioned in different adjacent sectors to the curing event)
Tehami Darke on weak evidence (see below) for curing Disquetingly Serene Bowel Syndrome
Dankon Ground for curing;
Gurglepox (present in opposite sector OR Danny Nova in same sector)
Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat (always present in opposite sector)
Zancro for curing Scraped Elbow, Scraped Knee (always present in same sector)
Nettie Silver for curing Smokesickness (always present in same sector. It seems she is always present in Calderia, but her location and the Smokesickness curing location, when it occurs, do vary)
I have not figured out The Shivers.
Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome seems tricky. Cures only started on Day 390. Tehami Darke came to Calderia on Day 162, Lomerius Xardus first arrived on day 494, Zeledin Zura first arrived on day 427, Gouberi first arrived on day 397, Ricewined first arrived on day 994. None of which is particularly suggestive of a causal connection though the p-values would be very low assuming (falsely) that each day was independent. Cures seem more likely to occur in the sector where Tehami Darke is present, which is pretty weak without further investigation (e.g. is he hanging out in some sector where it’s more likely to occur anyway? I haven’t checked). Conditioned on day 390+, the average number of cures is slightly higher on days when Danny Nova is present, also weak, but the prior for Danny being involved is high, so might as well accuse him as well. (edit: no, seems there is no upside to this accusation given the scoring rule and the high confidence Danny Nova has been curing other stuff)
My accusations, at least so far:
Danny Nova for curing:
Babblepox (always present in same sector)
Bumblepox, Scramblepox (always present in same sector OR Azeru in adjacent sector
Gurglepox (always present in same sector OR Dankon Ground in opposite sector)
Chucklepox (Danny Nova in same sector for about half of cures. All other cases Lomerius Xardus was present somewhere (todo: investigate if more patterns than mere presence))
Rumblepox (suspiciously high ratio of presence/absence in Calderia when cured, but plenty more cases unexplained—TODO: explain more)
Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome (on weak evidence, see below)Azeru for curing Bumblepox, Scramblepox (see Danny Nova)
Lomerius Xardus for curing Chucklepox (see Danny Nova)
Boltholopew and Moon Finder, collectively, for curing Disease Syndrome, Parachordia, Problems Disorder (each one positioned in different adjacent sectors to the curing event)
Tehami Darke on weak evidence (see below) for curing Disquetingly Serene Bowel Syndrome
Dankon Ground for curing;
Gurglepox (present in opposite sector OR Danny Nova in same sector)
Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat (always present in opposite sector)
Zancro for curing Scraped Elbow, Scraped Knee (always present in same sector)
Nettie Silver for curing Smokesickness (always present in same sector. It seems she is always present in Calderia, but her location and the Smokesickness curing location, when it occurs, do vary)
I have not figured out The Shivers.
Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome seems tricky. Cures only started on Day 390. Tehami Darke came to Calderia on Day 162, Lomerius Xardus first arrived on day 494, Zeledin Zura first arrived on day 427, Gouberi first arrived on day 397, Ricewined first arrived on day 994. None of which is particularly suggestive of a causal connection though the p-values would be very low assuming (falsely) that each day was independent. Cures seem more likely to occur in the sector where Tehami Darke is present, which is pretty weak without further investigation (e.g. is he hanging out in some sector where it’s more likely to occur anyway? I haven’t checked). Conditioned on day 390+, the average number of cures is slightly higher on days when Danny Nova is present, also weak, but the prior for Danny being involved is high, so
might as well accuse him as well. (edit: no, seems there is no upside to this accusation given the scoring rule and the high confidence Danny Nova has been curing other stuff)