People, update your data! The temperature for the last 15 years is basically flat. Real-world measurements are dropping below the IPCC models’ forecasts. The hysterics from 10 years ago look much overstated today.
And as to consequences, look carefully at the Stern report (2007). First, until about +2 degrees warming, the net effect is positive. Second, the report was forced to cheat by assuming a very low discount rate in order to make the far-off effects significant enough to justify any changes today.
The low rate of average air temperature increase is probably partially due to a confluence of various oscillations that move heat energy back and forth between the hydrosphere and atmosphere, along with the recent increase in industrial aerosols from China (which they very much want to get rid of so that their people can, yknow, breathe). Most of the thermal energy goes into the water at any given time but it can easily come out again. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_0JZRIHFtk is a quick and dirty visualization of this effect.
The recent arctic ice breakdown is far more rapid than any models predicted.
I have no reason to think that climates changing will end civilization or directly kill billions of people. What it will do is stress many ecologies to near the breaking point for a few centuries, make temperate zone weather more inconsistent and unpredictable, and require all sorts of adaptation efforts as the climate bands that our current agricultural and urban systems have sprung up around change.
People, update your data! The temperature for the last 15 years is basically flat. Real-world measurements are dropping below the IPCC models’ forecasts. The hysterics from 10 years ago look much overstated today.
And as to consequences, look carefully at the Stern report (2007). First, until about +2 degrees warming, the net effect is positive. Second, the report was forced to cheat by assuming a very low discount rate in order to make the far-off effects significant enough to justify any changes today.
The low rate of average air temperature increase is probably partially due to a confluence of various oscillations that move heat energy back and forth between the hydrosphere and atmosphere, along with the recent increase in industrial aerosols from China (which they very much want to get rid of so that their people can, yknow, breathe). Most of the thermal energy goes into the water at any given time but it can easily come out again. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_0JZRIHFtk is a quick and dirty visualization of this effect.
The recent arctic ice breakdown is far more rapid than any models predicted.
I have no reason to think that climates changing will end civilization or directly kill billions of people. What it will do is stress many ecologies to near the breaking point for a few centuries, make temperate zone weather more inconsistent and unpredictable, and require all sorts of adaptation efforts as the climate bands that our current agricultural and urban systems have sprung up around change.