What happens in your plan if it takes five years to solve the safety evaluation/deception problem for LLMs (i.e. it’s extremely hard)?
Do you have an estimate of P({China; Russia; Iran; North Korea} steals an ASL-3 system with ASL-3 security measures)? Conditional on one of these countries having the system, what’s your guess of p(catastrophe)?
Two questions related to it:
What happens in your plan if it takes five years to solve the safety evaluation/deception problem for LLMs (i.e. it’s extremely hard)?
Do you have an estimate of P({China; Russia; Iran; North Korea} steals an ASL-3 system with ASL-3 security measures)? Conditional on one of these countries having the system, what’s your guess of p(catastrophe)?