Seems a bit arbitrary. You’re looking for a way to bake in your priors on linear vs piece-wise linear with multiple segments. BIC doesn’t seem all that principled here.
Hmm, I can’t really think of a way you can do much better than staring at it to be honest.
But if you wanted to be rigorous about it, what would you do? I think you’d come up with initial subjective odds of linear vs 2-piecewise linear. E.g. 4:1. Then do a bayesian update using the marginal likelihood ratios.
Seems a bit arbitrary. You’re looking for a way to bake in your priors on linear vs piece-wise linear with multiple segments. BIC doesn’t seem all that principled here.
Then what would you recommend for determining whether linear or piecewise linear (only 2 segments btw) provides a better fit?
Hmm, I can’t really think of a way you can do much better than staring at it to be honest.
But if you wanted to be rigorous about it, what would you do? I think you’d come up with initial subjective odds of linear vs 2-piecewise linear. E.g. 4:1. Then do a bayesian update using the marginal likelihood ratios.