I spent some time on this a few years ago and I’d say it’s akin to backing selection effects out of your data, i.e. hard. I have a strong wish for there to be more material in existence outlining how people who are good at this use various heuristics for it.
One other thing that occurred to me reading the post is ‘desires aren’t curious’ and it’s interesting to think of all desires as a form of writing the bottom line first (which is fine sometimes, but good to keep track of the side effects).
I spent some time on this a few years ago and I’d say it’s akin to backing selection effects out of your data, i.e. hard. I have a strong wish for there to be more material in existence outlining how people who are good at this use various heuristics for it.
One other thing that occurred to me reading the post is ‘desires aren’t curious’ and it’s interesting to think of all desires as a form of writing the bottom line first (which is fine sometimes, but good to keep track of the side effects).