This is the core point of disagreement. The point is that “Experts are apparently known to be not much better than amateurs outside of their area of expertise” might be wrong (just as all of the other arguments against the truth of his beliefs might be wrong).
That could be wrong but it is overwhelmingly unlikely to be. If the “core point of disagreement” is that one can freely ignore established science if convenient then the core point is somewhat lacking.
Note that there’s some evidence that in some fields, experts are actually better outside their own field. This is discussed with relevant studies in Tetlock’s “Expert Political Judgement.” However, this is for predictions of the future, not judgments about correctness of basic models in their field.
“In this age of academic hyperspecialization, there is no reason for supposing that contributors to top journals—distinguished political scientists, area study specialists, economists, and so on—are any better than journalists or attentive readers of the New York Times in “reading” emerging situations. The data reported in chapters 2, 3, and 4 underscore this point. The analytical skills undergirding academic acclaim conferred no advantage in forecasting and belief-updating exercises.” (p. 233)
Sorry, bad phrasing on my part. Tetlock’s work shows that experts are better outsider their own field compared to their own field, not necessarily compared to other people.
That could be wrong but it is overwhelmingly unlikely to be. If the “core point of disagreement” is that one can freely ignore established science if convenient then the core point is somewhat lacking.
Why do you think this?
People did science. I read textbooks.
This is not a complicated or ambiguous question.
Note that there’s some evidence that in some fields, experts are actually better outside their own field. This is discussed with relevant studies in Tetlock’s “Expert Political Judgement.” However, this is for predictions of the future, not judgments about correctness of basic models in their field.
That’s interesting, because:
Sorry, bad phrasing on my part. Tetlock’s work shows that experts are better outsider their own field compared to their own field, not necessarily compared to other people.
I suspect your phrasing is still bad, because I don’t recall anything of the sort in the book.
I’m pretty sure that’s what I meant to say. Unfortunately, I don’t have my copy of the book off-hand. I’ll have to get back to you.