Sorry, bad phrasing on my part. Tetlock’s work shows that experts are better outsider their own field compared to their own field, not necessarily compared to other people.
I suspect your phrasing is still bad, because I don’t recall anything of the sort in the book.
I’m pretty sure that’s what I meant to say. Unfortunately, I don’t have my copy of the book off-hand. I’ll have to get back to you.
Sorry, bad phrasing on my part. Tetlock’s work shows that experts are better outsider their own field compared to their own field, not necessarily compared to other people.
I suspect your phrasing is still bad, because I don’t recall anything of the sort in the book.
I’m pretty sure that’s what I meant to say. Unfortunately, I don’t have my copy of the book off-hand. I’ll have to get back to you.