Regardless, a million is a constant factor. Sufficient self-reinforcing development (as is kind of the point of seed AI) can outstrip any such factor. And the more self-reinforced the development of our AI pool becomes, the less relevant are “mere” constant factors.
I’m not saying it won’t work, but I wouldn’t like to bet on it.
Don’t worry, I’m not saying it would work! We might put similar odds on it, or maybe not—less than .5 and more than .001, I’m not sure about what the full range of fleshing out the possible scenarios would look like, but there’s probably a way in which I could fill in variables to end up with a .05 confidence in a specific scenario working out.
Regardless, a million is a constant factor. Sufficient self-reinforcing development (as is kind of the point of seed AI) can outstrip any such factor. And the more self-reinforced the development of our AI pool becomes, the less relevant are “mere” constant factors.
I’m not saying it won’t work, but I wouldn’t like to bet on it.
Don’t worry, I’m not saying it would work! We might put similar odds on it, or maybe not—less than .5 and more than .001, I’m not sure about what the full range of fleshing out the possible scenarios would look like, but there’s probably a way in which I could fill in variables to end up with a .05 confidence in a specific scenario working out.