I agree donation lottery is most efficient for small sums, but not sure about this amount. Let’s say I won the 50-100k usd through a donation lottery, would you have any other advice then?
Not exactly sure, but probably try to find a donation lottery that pays out 5 mil or something and put your 50k in that? I’m not sure what the optimal risk/reward is for x-risk, since it’s not linear.
After you win, I’m not sure. But an advantage is that you can save your brain power for that timeline.
I do mostly agree on your logic, but I’m not sure 5 mil is a better optimum than 100 k, if anything I’m slightly risk averse, which would cancel out the brain power I would need to put in.
Also, for example, if there are 100 projects I could decide to invest in, and each wants 50k, I could donate to the 1-2 I think are some of the best. If I had 5 mil I would not only invest in the best ones, but also some of the less promising ones.
With that said, perhaps the field of AI safety is big enough that the marginal difference of the first 100k and the last 100k of 5 mil is very small.
Lastly, it does feel more motivating to be able to point to where my money went, rather than if I lost in the lottery and the money went into something I didn’t really value much.
Also, for example, if there are 100 projects I could decide to invest in, and each wants 50k, I could donate to the 1-2 I think are some of the best. If I had 5 mil I would not only invest in the best ones, but also some of the less promising ones.
Hmm, true, but what if the best project needs 5 mil so it can buy GPUs or something?
Lastly, it does feel more motivating to be able to point to where my money went, rather than if I lost in the lottery and the money went into something I didn’t really value much.
Perhaps we could have a specific AI alignment donation lottery, so that even if the winner doesn’t spend money in exactly the way you wanted, everyone can still get some “fuzzies”.
That is, whatever x-risk related thing the winner donates to, all participants in the lottery are acknowledged and are encouraged to feel grateful for it.
But yeah, that is the main drawback of the donation lottery.
Hmm, true, but what if the best project needs 5 mil so it can buy GPUs or something?
Good point, if that is the case I completely agree. Can’t name any such project though on the top of my mind.
Perhaps we could have a specific AI alignment donation lottery, so that even if the winner doesn’t spend money in exactly the way you wanted, everyone can still get some “fuzzies”.
Yeah, that should work.
There is also the possibility that there are unique “local” opportunities which benefits from many different people looking to donate, but really don´t know if that is the case.
I agree donation lottery is most efficient for small sums, but not sure about this amount. Let’s say I won the 50-100k usd through a donation lottery, would you have any other advice then?
Not exactly sure, but probably try to find a donation lottery that pays out 5 mil or something and put your 50k in that? I’m not sure what the optimal risk/reward is for x-risk, since it’s not linear.
After you win, I’m not sure. But an advantage is that you can save your brain power for that timeline.
I do mostly agree on your logic, but I’m not sure 5 mil is a better optimum than 100 k, if anything I’m slightly risk averse, which would cancel out the brain power I would need to put in.
Also, for example, if there are 100 projects I could decide to invest in, and each wants 50k, I could donate to the 1-2 I think are some of the best. If I had 5 mil I would not only invest in the best ones, but also some of the less promising ones.
With that said, perhaps the field of AI safety is big enough that the marginal difference of the first 100k and the last 100k of 5 mil is very small.
Lastly, it does feel more motivating to be able to point to where my money went, rather than if I lost in the lottery and the money went into something I didn’t really value much.
Hmm, true, but what if the best project needs 5 mil so it can buy GPUs or something?
Perhaps we could have a specific AI alignment donation lottery, so that even if the winner doesn’t spend money in exactly the way you wanted, everyone can still get some “fuzzies”.
That is, whatever x-risk related thing the winner donates to, all participants in the lottery are acknowledged and are encouraged to feel grateful for it.
But yeah, that is the main drawback of the donation lottery.
Good point, if that is the case I completely agree. Can’t name any such project though on the top of my mind.
Yeah, that should work.
There is also the possibility that there are unique “local” opportunities which benefits from many different people looking to donate, but really don´t know if that is the case.