Let’s suppose that your read is exactly right, and Yudkowsky in 2021 was predicting median 2040. You have surely spent more time with him than me. Bioanchors predicted ~25% cumulative probability by 2040. A 25% vs 50% disagreement in the world of AI timeline prediction is approximately nothing. What’s your read of why Yudkowsky is claiming that “median fucking 2050” is “fucking nuts in retrospect”, without also admitting that his implicit prediction of median 2040 was almost as nuts?
This is the second time this year that I’ve read Yudkowsky attacking the Bioanchors 2050 figure without mentioning that it had crazy wide error bars.
This month I also read “If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies” which repeats the message of “The Trick that Never Works” that forecasting timelines is really difficult and not important for the overall thesis. I preferred that Yudkowsky to this one.
EDIT: retracting because I don’t actually want a response to these questions, I’m just cross.
I don’t super get this comment. I don’t agree with Eliezer calling the other prediction “fucking nuts”. I was just replying to the statement that Eliezer did not make predictions here himself, which he did do.
Relevant links:
Draft report on AI Timelines—Cotra 2020-09-18
Biology-Inspired Timelines—The Trick that Never Works—Yudkowsky 2021-12-01
Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors—Harnofsky 2021-12-23
Let’s suppose that your read is exactly right, and Yudkowsky in 2021 was predicting median 2040. You have surely spent more time with him than me. Bioanchors predicted ~25% cumulative probability by 2040. A 25% vs 50% disagreement in the world of AI timeline prediction is approximately nothing. What’s your read of why Yudkowsky is claiming that “median fucking 2050” is “fucking nuts in retrospect”, without also admitting that his implicit prediction of median 2040 was almost as nuts?
This is the second time this year that I’ve read Yudkowsky attacking the Bioanchors 2050 figure without mentioning that it had crazy wide error bars.
This month I also read “If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies” which repeats the message of “The Trick that Never Works” that forecasting timelines is really difficult and not important for the overall thesis. I preferred that Yudkowsky to this one.
EDIT: retracting because I don’t actually want a response to these questions, I’m just cross.
I don’t super get this comment. I don’t agree with Eliezer calling the other prediction “fucking nuts”. I was just replying to the statement that Eliezer did not make predictions here himself, which he did do.