Punishment generally follows exceptionally bad behavior, exceptional behavior is, obviously, exceptional, so punishment would be expected to be followed by behavior which is not exceptionally bad just because of regression to the mean
I don’t think treating human behavior as a simple random variable is a good model. See here for a better model.
If you have a point to make, I think it can be made more effectively than “Read this article”.
I can identify behaviors that please me more than others, creating an ordinal structure on the set on the set of possible behaviors. I can also observe a frequency distribution of those behaviors. From the frequency distribution and the ordinal structure, I can identify a median. From there, it’s not too difficult to identify reasonable assumptions such that the frequency of a bad behavior being followed by a worse behavior is less than the frequency of a bad behavior being followed by a better behavior, where “bad behavior” is “behavior that is worse than the median”.
I don’t think treating human behavior as a simple random variable is a good model. See here for a better model.
If you have a point to make, I think it can be made more effectively than “Read this article”.
I can identify behaviors that please me more than others, creating an ordinal structure on the set on the set of possible behaviors. I can also observe a frequency distribution of those behaviors. From the frequency distribution and the ordinal structure, I can identify a median. From there, it’s not too difficult to identify reasonable assumptions such that the frequency of a bad behavior being followed by a worse behavior is less than the frequency of a bad behavior being followed by a better behavior, where “bad behavior” is “behavior that is worse than the median”.
But Eugine made a point and his point was:
He then backed up his point to give context to suggest what a better model might be, i.e. one that models a human as a temporal process with habits.