First, in answer to your third question, Leverage is methodologically pluralistic. Different members of Leverage have different views on scientific methodology and philosophical methodology. We have ongoing discussions about these things. My guess is that probably two or three of our more than twenty members share my views on scientific and philosophical methodology.
If there’s anything methodological we tend to agree on, it’s a process. Writing drafts, getting feedback, paying close attention to detail, being systematic, putting in many, many hours of effort. When you imagine Leverage, don’t imagine a bunch of people thinking with a single mind. Imagine a large number of interacting parallel processes, aimed at a single goal.
Now, I’m happy to discuss my personal views on method. In a nutshell: my philosophical method is essentially Cartesian; in science, I judge theories on the basis of elegance and fit with the evidence. (“Elegance”, in my lingo, is like Occam’s razor, so in practice you and I actually both take Occam’s razor seriously.) My views aren’t the views of Leverage, though, so I’m not sure I should try to give an extended defense here. I’m going to write up some philosophical material for a blog soon, though, so people who are interested in my personal views should check that out.
As for Connection Theory, I could say a bit about where it came from. But the important thing here is why I use it. The primary reason I use CT is because I’ve used it to predict a number of antecedently unlikely phenomena, and the predictions appear to have come true at a very high rate. Of course, I recognize that I might have made some errors somewhere in collecting or assessing the evidence. This is one reason I’m continuing to test CT.
Just as with methodology, people in Leverage have different views on CT. Some people believe it is true. (Not me, actually. I believe it is false; my concern is with how useful it is.) Others believe it is useful in particular contexts. Some think it’s worth investigating, others think it’s unlikely to be useful and not worth examining. A person who thought CT was not useful and who wanted to change the world by figuring out how the mind really works would be welcome at Leverage.
So, in sum, there are many views at Leverage on methodology and CT. We discuss these topics, but no one insists on any particular view and we’re all happy to work together.
I’m glad you like that we’re producing public-facing documents. Actually, we’re going to be posting a lot more stuff in the relatively near future.
Is CT falsifiable? There’s no obvious way to determine a person’s intrinsic goods except by observing their behavior, but a person’s behavior is what CT is supposed to predict in the first place. If a person appears to be acting in a way that contradicts the Action Rule, then “CT is wrong” and “CT is fine; the person had different intrinsic goods than I thought they did” are both consistent with the evidence.
Short answer: Yes, CT is falsifiable. Here’s how to see this. Take a look at the example CT chart. By following the procedures stated in the Theory and Practice document, you can produce and check a CT chart like the example chart. Once you’ve checked the chart, you can make predictions using CT and the CT chart. From the example chart, for instance, we can see that the person sometimes plays video games and tries to improve and sometimes plays video games while not trying to improve. From the chart and CT, we can predict: “If the person comes to believe that he stably has the ability to be cool, as he conceives of coolness, then he will stop playing video games while not trying to improve.” We would measure belief here primarily by the person’s belief reports. So we have a concrete procedure that yields specific predictions. In this case, if the person followed various recommendations designed to increase his ability to be cool, ended up reporting that he stably had the ability to be cool, but still reported playing video games while not trying to improve, CT would be falsified.
Longer answer: In practice, almost any specific theory can be rendered consistent with the data by adding epicycles, positing hidden entities, and so forth. Instead of falsifying most theories, then, what happens is this: You encounter some recalcitrant data. You add some epicycles to your theory. You encounter more recalcitrant data. You posit some hidden entities. Eventually, though, the global theory that includes your theory becomes less elegant than the global theory that rejects your theory. So, you switch to the global theory that rejects your theory and you discard your specific theory. In practice with CT, so far we haven’t had to add many epicycles or posit many hidden entities. In particular, we haven’t had the experience of having to frequently change what we think a person’s intrinsic goods are. If we found that we kept having to revise our views about a person’s intrinsic goods (especially if the old posited intrinsic goods were not instrumentally useful for achieving the new posited intrinsic goods), this would be a serious warning sign.
Speaking more generally, we’re following particular procedures, as described in the CT Theory and Practice document. We expect to achieve particular results. If in a relatively short time frame we find that we can’t, that will provide evidence against the claim “CT is useful for achieving result X”. For example, I’ve been able to work for more than 13 hours a day, with only occasional days off, for more than two years. I attribute this to CT and I expect we’ll be able to replicate this. If we end up not being able to, that’ll be obvious to us and everyone else.
Thanks for raising the issue of falsifiability. I’m going to add it to our CT FAQ.
For example, I’ve been able to work for more than 13 hours a day, with only occasional days off, for more than two years. I attribute this to CT and I expect we’ll be able to replicate this. If we end up not being able to, that’ll be obvious to us and everyone else.
It’s not an infrequent occurrence that someone comes up with a self-help technique that works for himself, but then doesn’t work nearly as well for others—but then if he’s say selling a book he may still be able to find 5 people out of 500 on which it works to add their testimony on the back cover!
So far, I see no reason to think that CT would be any better (either for prediction or self-improvement) than say Neuro-Linguistic Programming, which is also an alternative theory that claims impressive results and has a pretty big following.
I think it is possible some alternative psychology model will help people improve themselves and make humanity better etc. - but there are many candidates (including tings like Scientology), and much potential for self-delusion or misunderstanding or death spirals …
What I’ve heard is that, when they try to do studies, all types of therapy seem to be about as good as every other type; one study found that talking to a teenage girl with no training in particular was about as effective as talking with a professional therapist. (On the other hand, they also all tend to be better than nothing.)
(Note that this is all vague “what I remember hearing” stuff, so there’s probably something more definitive to be found if you Google it.)
For example, I’ve been able to work for more than 13 hours a day, with only occasional days off, for more than two years. I attribute this to CT and I expect we’ll be able to replicate this. If we end up not being able to, that’ll be obvious to us and everyone else.
Seconded, I find pdf annoying, especially on my home computer where they don’t open in a browser tab, but in a separate application. I don’t see any benefit at all to pdf, except for stuff that needs to be printed out so you can write on it or something.
For example, I’ve been able to work for more than 13 hours a day, with only occasional days off, for more than two years. I attribute this to CT and I expect we’ll be able to replicate this. If we end up not being able to, that’ll be obvious to us and everyone else.
But what quality of work? Organizing my closet is very different than reading a dense academic paper with full concentration.
Oops, I forgot to answer your question about how central Connection Theory is to what we’re doing.
The answer is that CT is one part of what some of us believe is our best current answer to the question of how the human mind works. I say “one part” because CT does not cover emotions. In all contexts pertaining to emotions, everyone uses something other than CT. I say “some of us” because not everyone in Leverage uses CT. And I say “best current answer” because all of us are happy to throw CT away if we come up with something better.
In terms of our projects, some people use CT and others don’t. Some parts of some training programs are designed with CT in mind; other parts aren’t. In some contexts, it is very hard to do anything at all without relying on some background psychological framework. In those contexts, some people rely on CT and others don’t.
In terms of our overall plan, CT is potentially extremely useful. That said, CT itself is inessential. If it ends up breaking, we can find new psychological tools. And we actually have a backup plan in case we ultimately can’t figure out much at all about how the mind works.
Thanks for your clarifications! Especially: “I believe (Connection Theory) is false; my concern is with how useful it is.” That sentence sounds very different than the opening paragraph of your Connection Theory page; you may want to tweak the wording on that page.
Hi Luke,
I’m happy to talk about these things.
First, in answer to your third question, Leverage is methodologically pluralistic. Different members of Leverage have different views on scientific methodology and philosophical methodology. We have ongoing discussions about these things. My guess is that probably two or three of our more than twenty members share my views on scientific and philosophical methodology.
If there’s anything methodological we tend to agree on, it’s a process. Writing drafts, getting feedback, paying close attention to detail, being systematic, putting in many, many hours of effort. When you imagine Leverage, don’t imagine a bunch of people thinking with a single mind. Imagine a large number of interacting parallel processes, aimed at a single goal.
Now, I’m happy to discuss my personal views on method. In a nutshell: my philosophical method is essentially Cartesian; in science, I judge theories on the basis of elegance and fit with the evidence. (“Elegance”, in my lingo, is like Occam’s razor, so in practice you and I actually both take Occam’s razor seriously.) My views aren’t the views of Leverage, though, so I’m not sure I should try to give an extended defense here. I’m going to write up some philosophical material for a blog soon, though, so people who are interested in my personal views should check that out.
As for Connection Theory, I could say a bit about where it came from. But the important thing here is why I use it. The primary reason I use CT is because I’ve used it to predict a number of antecedently unlikely phenomena, and the predictions appear to have come true at a very high rate. Of course, I recognize that I might have made some errors somewhere in collecting or assessing the evidence. This is one reason I’m continuing to test CT.
Just as with methodology, people in Leverage have different views on CT. Some people believe it is true. (Not me, actually. I believe it is false; my concern is with how useful it is.) Others believe it is useful in particular contexts. Some think it’s worth investigating, others think it’s unlikely to be useful and not worth examining. A person who thought CT was not useful and who wanted to change the world by figuring out how the mind really works would be welcome at Leverage.
So, in sum, there are many views at Leverage on methodology and CT. We discuss these topics, but no one insists on any particular view and we’re all happy to work together.
I’m glad you like that we’re producing public-facing documents. Actually, we’re going to be posting a lot more stuff in the relatively near future.
::follows various links::
Is CT falsifiable? There’s no obvious way to determine a person’s intrinsic goods except by observing their behavior, but a person’s behavior is what CT is supposed to predict in the first place. If a person appears to be acting in a way that contradicts the Action Rule, then “CT is wrong” and “CT is fine; the person had different intrinsic goods than I thought they did” are both consistent with the evidence.
Short answer: Yes, CT is falsifiable. Here’s how to see this. Take a look at the example CT chart. By following the procedures stated in the Theory and Practice document, you can produce and check a CT chart like the example chart. Once you’ve checked the chart, you can make predictions using CT and the CT chart. From the example chart, for instance, we can see that the person sometimes plays video games and tries to improve and sometimes plays video games while not trying to improve. From the chart and CT, we can predict: “If the person comes to believe that he stably has the ability to be cool, as he conceives of coolness, then he will stop playing video games while not trying to improve.” We would measure belief here primarily by the person’s belief reports. So we have a concrete procedure that yields specific predictions. In this case, if the person followed various recommendations designed to increase his ability to be cool, ended up reporting that he stably had the ability to be cool, but still reported playing video games while not trying to improve, CT would be falsified.
Longer answer: In practice, almost any specific theory can be rendered consistent with the data by adding epicycles, positing hidden entities, and so forth. Instead of falsifying most theories, then, what happens is this: You encounter some recalcitrant data. You add some epicycles to your theory. You encounter more recalcitrant data. You posit some hidden entities. Eventually, though, the global theory that includes your theory becomes less elegant than the global theory that rejects your theory. So, you switch to the global theory that rejects your theory and you discard your specific theory. In practice with CT, so far we haven’t had to add many epicycles or posit many hidden entities. In particular, we haven’t had the experience of having to frequently change what we think a person’s intrinsic goods are. If we found that we kept having to revise our views about a person’s intrinsic goods (especially if the old posited intrinsic goods were not instrumentally useful for achieving the new posited intrinsic goods), this would be a serious warning sign.
Speaking more generally, we’re following particular procedures, as described in the CT Theory and Practice document. We expect to achieve particular results. If in a relatively short time frame we find that we can’t, that will provide evidence against the claim “CT is useful for achieving result X”. For example, I’ve been able to work for more than 13 hours a day, with only occasional days off, for more than two years. I attribute this to CT and I expect we’ll be able to replicate this. If we end up not being able to, that’ll be obvious to us and everyone else.
Thanks for raising the issue of falsifiability. I’m going to add it to our CT FAQ.
It’s not an infrequent occurrence that someone comes up with a self-help technique that works for himself, but then doesn’t work nearly as well for others—but then if he’s say selling a book he may still be able to find 5 people out of 500 on which it works to add their testimony on the back cover!
So far, I see no reason to think that CT would be any better (either for prediction or self-improvement) than say Neuro-Linguistic Programming, which is also an alternative theory that claims impressive results and has a pretty big following.
I think it is possible some alternative psychology model will help people improve themselves and make humanity better etc. - but there are many candidates (including tings like Scientology), and much potential for self-delusion or misunderstanding or death spirals …
What I’ve heard is that, when they try to do studies, all types of therapy seem to be about as good as every other type; one study found that talking to a teenage girl with no training in particular was about as effective as talking with a professional therapist. (On the other hand, they also all tend to be better than nothing.)
(Note that this is all vague “what I remember hearing” stuff, so there’s probably something more definitive to be found if you Google it.)
You’re likely thinking of Dawes, at least in part. Obligatory Less Wrong link.
Thanks.
Any updates?
Do you have html for those documents? PDF is OK for me, but my guess is html is more openly accessible.
Seconded, I find pdf annoying, especially on my home computer where they don’t open in a browser tab, but in a separate application. I don’t see any benefit at all to pdf, except for stuff that needs to be printed out so you can write on it or something.
.
But what quality of work? Organizing my closet is very different than reading a dense academic paper with full concentration.
I can usually do any type of work. Sometimes it becomes harder for me to write detailed documents in the last couple hours of my day.
Oops, I forgot to answer your question about how central Connection Theory is to what we’re doing.
The answer is that CT is one part of what some of us believe is our best current answer to the question of how the human mind works. I say “one part” because CT does not cover emotions. In all contexts pertaining to emotions, everyone uses something other than CT. I say “some of us” because not everyone in Leverage uses CT. And I say “best current answer” because all of us are happy to throw CT away if we come up with something better.
In terms of our projects, some people use CT and others don’t. Some parts of some training programs are designed with CT in mind; other parts aren’t. In some contexts, it is very hard to do anything at all without relying on some background psychological framework. In those contexts, some people rely on CT and others don’t.
In terms of our overall plan, CT is potentially extremely useful. That said, CT itself is inessential. If it ends up breaking, we can find new psychological tools. And we actually have a backup plan in case we ultimately can’t figure out much at all about how the mind works.
Geoff,
Thanks for your clarifications! Especially: “I believe (Connection Theory) is false; my concern is with how useful it is.” That sentence sounds very different than the opening paragraph of your Connection Theory page; you may want to tweak the wording on that page.
I do believe Peirce is either rolling over in his grave, or doing whatever the opposite of that is.
Rolling over in his grave in the other direction?