I think this proves too much—this would predict that superforecasters would be consistently outperformed by domain experts when typically the reverse it true.
As of two years ago, the evidence for this was sparse. Looked like parity overall, though the pool of “supers” has improved over the last decade as more people got sampled.
There are other reasons to be down on XPT in particular.
I think this proves too much—this would predict that superforecasters would be consistently outperformed by domain experts when typically the reverse it true.
I think I agree.
For my information, what’s your favorite reference for superforecasters outperforming domain experts?
As of two years ago, the evidence for this was sparse. Looked like parity overall, though the pool of “supers” has improved over the last decade as more people got sampled.
There are other reasons to be down on XPT in particular.