^ This helped me make a big spreadsheet of personal project tasks… only to get bogged down in probability estimates and tasks-conditional-on-other-tasks and goals-that-I-didn’t-want-to-change-despite-evidence-that-they-would-be-surprisingly-hard-to-do.
Sooooo I ended up just using my spreadsheet as “to-do list, plus deadlines, plus probability guesses”. The final sorting was… basically just by deadline. And it didn’t really work for personal projects, so I just used it for schoolwork anyway.
(I was recommended the article later, and I do still think it’s useful, just not needle-movingly useful for my issues. And I read it before this post, so)
yeah, nice highlight on how reuse of partial results is probably a big chunk of how we do sample complexity reduction (and/or partitioning search spaces) via the granularity in our tacit reference class forecasting.
Related and strongly recommended: Research as a Stochastic Decision Process
^ This helped me make a big spreadsheet of personal project tasks… only to get bogged down in probability estimates and tasks-conditional-on-other-tasks and goals-that-I-didn’t-want-to-change-despite-evidence-that-they-would-be-surprisingly-hard-to-do.
Sooooo I ended up just using my spreadsheet as “to-do list, plus deadlines, plus probability guesses”. The final sorting was… basically just by deadline. And it didn’t really work for personal projects, so I just used it for schoolwork anyway.
(I was recommended the article later, and I do still think it’s useful, just not needle-movingly useful for my issues. And I read it before this post, so)
yeah, nice highlight on how reuse of partial results is probably a big chunk of how we do sample complexity reduction (and/or partitioning search spaces) via the granularity in our tacit reference class forecasting.