I think I’m saying (probably badly), that events (and their impact on an agent, which are experiences) are in the territory, and probability is always and only in maps. It’s misleading to call it a “real-world problem” without noticing that probability is not in the real world.
To be quantitatively uncertain is isomorphic to making a (theoretical) bet. The resolution mechanism of the bet IS the “real-world problem” that you’re using probability to describe.
I think I’m saying (probably badly), that events (and their impact on an agent, which are experiences) are in the territory, and probability is always and only in maps. It’s misleading to call it a “real-world problem” without noticing that probability is not in the real world.
To be quantitatively uncertain is isomorphic to making a (theoretical) bet. The resolution mechanism of the bet IS the “real-world problem” that you’re using probability to describe.