Sure, that’s certainly a valid point. It doesn’t make the people saying this in the 1980s or the 1990s or the 2000s correct in any way shape or form. And it is possible that the media’s current claims are completely disconnected from the uptick. The relevant bit is updating that there really has been a statistically significant uptick. (Especially because my priors based on general declining crime rates would have been to if anything suspect the opposite.)
What do you mean? I thought I made that clear. My opinion was well before 2011 and remained my go to comment until I read that article that there was no increase at all and that any claimed increase was purely media hype.
Your opinion about newsmedia was correct the whole time. This led you to ignore Mother Jones in 2012, but still your beliefs about the trends were correct for most of the time you held them.
What is the correct course of action? Ignoring the newsmedia is clearly optimal. In particular paying attention to MJ writing on the same data set in 2012 would have produced the belief that spree killings had increased in 2006, an error according to your current MJ beliefs, though of course MJ doesn’t notice the change. Maybe if you wait a few years, they’ll convince you that nothing changed in 2011, only in 2015.
Sure, that’s certainly a valid point. It doesn’t make the people saying this in the 1980s or the 1990s or the 2000s correct in any way shape or form. And it is possible that the media’s current claims are completely disconnected from the uptick. The relevant bit is updating that there really has been a statistically significant uptick. (Especially because my priors based on general declining crime rates would have been to if anything suspect the opposite.)
Also, what about you? Did you have this opinion before 2011?
What do you mean? I thought I made that clear. My opinion was well before 2011 and remained my go to comment until I read that article that there was no increase at all and that any claimed increase was purely media hype.
Your opinion about newsmedia was correct the whole time. This led you to ignore Mother Jones in 2012, but still your beliefs about the trends were correct for most of the time you held them.
What is the correct course of action?
Ignoring the newsmedia is clearly optimal. In particular paying attention to MJ writing on the same data set in 2012 would have produced the belief that spree killings had increased in 2006, an error according to your current MJ beliefs, though of course MJ doesn’t notice the change. Maybe if you wait a few years, they’ll convince you that nothing changed in 2011, only in 2015.
I don’t think so. I had read similar articles in the past and was generally unpersuaded.