Gpt5.2 seems to have been trained specifically to be better at work tasks, especially long ones. It was also released early, according to articles about a “code red” in openAI. As such, (I predict) it should be a jump on the metr graph. It will be difficult to differentiate progress because it was trained to do well at long work tasks from the results of the early release and from any actual algorithms progress. (An example of algorithms progress would be a training method for using memory well—something not specific to eg programming tasks.)
Gpt5.2 did in fact buck the trend from the previous graph. (The grey line on t is graph is the old trend line.)
Together with opus 4.5, gpt5.2 caused metr to enrich their task base, and changed doubling time on the graph from 213 or 212 days to 128 days.
The same logic as above suggests a regression to the mean regarding the next release: it should make doubling time go down a little. This is only if time horizons continue to be a reasonable measure of capability, which I doubt, as argued here.
Thank you Baybar for asking me to be specific. I should have been even more specific.
Here is the graph I’m talking about. Given that 5.1-codex max is already above the trend line, a jump would be a point outside the shaded area, that is bucking the de facto trend.
Gpt5.2 seems to have been trained specifically to be better at work tasks, especially long ones. It was also released early, according to articles about a “code red” in openAI. As such, (I predict) it should be a jump on the metr graph. It will be difficult to differentiate progress because it was trained to do well at long work tasks from the results of the early release and from any actual algorithms progress. (An example of algorithms progress would be a training method for using memory well—something not specific to eg programming tasks.)
Gpt5.2 did in fact buck the trend from the previous graph. (The grey line on t is graph is the old trend line.)
Together with opus 4.5, gpt5.2 caused metr to enrich their task base, and changed doubling time on the graph from 213 or 212 days to 128 days.
The same logic as above suggests a regression to the mean regarding the next release: it should make doubling time go down a little. This is only if time horizons continue to be a reasonable measure of capability, which I doubt, as argued here.
Thank you Baybar for asking me to be specific. I should have been even more specific.
What do you mean by “a jump on the metr graph”? Do you just mean better than GPT-5.1? Do you mean something more than that?
Here is the graph I’m talking about. Given that 5.1-codex max is already above the trend line, a jump would be a point outside the shaded area, that is bucking the de facto trend.