Metaculus wouldn’t work if it didn’t offer incentives for participants. The fact that they aren’t monetary doesn’t mean they won’t induce the same sort of problems you worry about above.
Surely we should compare, for particular topics, the magnitude of actual sabotage to the magnitude of the info value gained. And there are many ways to design markets to reduce the rate of sabotage.
Metaculus wouldn’t work if it didn’t offer incentives for participants. The fact that they aren’t monetary doesn’t mean they won’t induce the same sort of problems you worry about above.
Surely we should compare, for particular topics, the magnitude of actual sabotage to the magnitude of the info value gained. And there are many ways to design markets to reduce the rate of sabotage.