Maybe I should write down the theorem that is implicit here, since it wasn’t obvious to me at first: if you ask the example Alice your question, then she will answer 50. So it is recovering the AGI distribution from before nuclear war was added to the model. However, the new type of conditional still doesn’t seem very natural to me: if Alice has a model in which the processes leading to AGI and nuclear war are correlated with each other in a more substantive way than just precluding each other at completion, then it is not clear what the new conditional is supposed to be measuring about her model. For example, maybe she thinks that both AGI and nuclear war times will be affected by variables like the rate of technological progress, political developments etc. So it seems simpler just to ask the question about what she would predict about AGI if other considerations were removed from her model.
Maybe I should write down the theorem that is implicit here, since it wasn’t obvious to me at first: if you ask the example Alice your question, then she will answer 50. So it is recovering the AGI distribution from before nuclear war was added to the model. However, the new type of conditional still doesn’t seem very natural to me: if Alice has a model in which the processes leading to AGI and nuclear war are correlated with each other in a more substantive way than just precluding each other at completion, then it is not clear what the new conditional is supposed to be measuring about her model. For example, maybe she thinks that both AGI and nuclear war times will be affected by variables like the rate of technological progress, political developments etc. So it seems simpler just to ask the question about what she would predict about AGI if other considerations were removed from her model.