I sat through the recent hearing, read more about the reported observations, and my interest has basically gone back to zero. For me, the default explanation for such observations remains balloons, drones, natural atmospheric events, sensor artefacts, etc.; and whatever’s going on with Grusch, is to be explained in terms of human belief and human deception, e.g. aerospace companies seeking new contracts, other agencies refusing to discuss rumors with him, or whatever.
In other words, I remain firmly in favor of mundane explanations. Specific mundane hypotheses (like the ones in my previous comment) may have their merits and demerits, but regarding the bigger issue, “ontological crisis” feels less likely than it did, before the hearing. Of course I can imagine all kinds of non-mundane scenarios; but mundane physical nature and human nature seem quite capable of producing what we’re seeing, all by themselves.
Could you explain what made you change your mind and update back to zero? It’s nice to write down your beliefs but it would be much more helpful for the rest of us if you could share what information actually helped you update.
A number of deflationary thoughts or realizations added up to the thought, “I’m not seeing, hearing, or reading anything here, that is beyond mundane explanation”. For example, realizing that an object “the size of a football field” might be an object in a sensor reading that is inferred to be the size of a football field, rather than something bulky and massive that was seen with the naked eye… But these precursor thoughts were not individually decisive. It’s not that I definitely knew what actually happened in any particular case. It was just the vivid realization that, wow, there really could be nothing at all behind all this hype.
I sat through the recent hearing, read more about the reported observations, and my interest has basically gone back to zero. For me, the default explanation for such observations remains balloons, drones, natural atmospheric events, sensor artefacts, etc.; and whatever’s going on with Grusch, is to be explained in terms of human belief and human deception, e.g. aerospace companies seeking new contracts, other agencies refusing to discuss rumors with him, or whatever.
In other words, I remain firmly in favor of mundane explanations. Specific mundane hypotheses (like the ones in my previous comment) may have their merits and demerits, but regarding the bigger issue, “ontological crisis” feels less likely than it did, before the hearing. Of course I can imagine all kinds of non-mundane scenarios; but mundane physical nature and human nature seem quite capable of producing what we’re seeing, all by themselves.
Could you explain what made you change your mind and update back to zero? It’s nice to write down your beliefs but it would be much more helpful for the rest of us if you could share what information actually helped you update.
A number of deflationary thoughts or realizations added up to the thought, “I’m not seeing, hearing, or reading anything here, that is beyond mundane explanation”. For example, realizing that an object “the size of a football field” might be an object in a sensor reading that is inferred to be the size of a football field, rather than something bulky and massive that was seen with the naked eye… But these precursor thoughts were not individually decisive. It’s not that I definitely knew what actually happened in any particular case. It was just the vivid realization that, wow, there really could be nothing at all behind all this hype.