While he might be right about it being less dangerous than you think, he did not have sufficient information to take 10:1 odds, and commenting as he did signals low caution. Unless there is some point specifically in his favor, you probably should not message him.
I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.
risky behavior does not need to (anti)correlate with the ability to keep someone else’s secrets.
That said, I tend to agree that there are plenty of other people on this forum better qualified to evaluate if an idea is dangerous. However, the odds (here it is, again) of Eitan’s idea needing high qualifications to evaluate are tiny.
I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.
I don’t think there should be a difference. In practice the friction of actually making the bet is generally too high to bother, but in principle if you’re giving odds you should be willing to make a small bet at (slightly better than) those odds.
So should I or should I not message you?
While he might be right about it being less dangerous than you think, he did not have sufficient information to take 10:1 odds, and commenting as he did signals low caution. Unless there is some point specifically in his favor, you probably should not message him.
A few notes:
I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.
risky behavior does not need to (anti)correlate with the ability to keep someone else’s secrets.
That said, I tend to agree that there are plenty of other people on this forum better qualified to evaluate if an idea is dangerous. However, the odds (here it is, again) of Eitan’s idea needing high qualifications to evaluate are tiny.
I don’t think there should be a difference. In practice the friction of actually making the bet is generally too high to bother, but in principle if you’re giving odds you should be willing to make a small bet at (slightly better than) those odds.
Already did, so fingers crossed. :)
Feel free.