Notably, even just delaying it until we can (safely) automate large parts of AI safety research would be both a very big deal, and intuitively seems quite tractable to me. E.g. the task-time-horizons required seem to be (only) ~100 hours for a lot of prosaic AI safety research:
And this suggests 100x acceleration in research cycles if ideation + implementation were automated, and humans were relegated to doing peer reviewing of AI-published papers:
Notably, even just delaying it until we can (safely) automate large parts of AI safety research would be both a very big deal, and intuitively seems quite tractable to me. E.g. the task-time-horizons required seem to be (only) ~100 hours for a lot of prosaic AI safety research:
https://x.com/BogdanIonutCir2/status/1948152133674811518
Based on current trends fron https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/, this could already have happened by sometime between 2027 and 2030:
And this suggests 100x acceleration in research cycles if ideation + implementation were automated, and humans were relegated to doing peer reviewing of AI-published papers:
https://x.com/BogdanIonutCir2/status/1940100507932197217