I agree with this (and think it’s good to periodically say all of this straightforwardly).
I don’t know that it’ll be particularly worth your time, but, the thing I was hoping for this post was to ratchet the conversation-re-anthropic forward in, like, “doublecrux-weighted-concreteness.” (i.e. your arguments here are reasonably crux-and-concrete, but don’t seem to be engaging much with the arguments in this post that seemed more novel and representative of where anthropic employees tend to be coming from, instead just repeated AFAICT your cached arguments against Anthropic)
I don’t have much hope of directly persuading Dario, but I feel some hope of persuading both current and future-prospective employees who aren’t starting from the same prior of “alignment is hard enough that this plan is just crazy”, and for that to have useful flow-through effects.
My experience talking at least with Zac and Drake has been “these are people with real models, who share many-but-not-all-MIRI-ish assumptions but don’t intuitively buy that the Anthropic’s downsides are high, and would respond to arguments that were doing more to bridge perspectives.” (I’m hoping they end up writing comments here outlining more of their perspective/cruxes, which they’d expressed interest in in the past, although I ended up shipping the post quickly without trying to line up everything)
I don’t have a strong belief that contributing to that conversation is a better use of your time than whatever else you’re doing, but it seemed sad to me for the conversation to not at least be attempted.
(I do also plan to write 1-2 posts that are more focused on “here’s where Anthropic/Dario have done things that seem actively bad to me and IMO are damning unless accounted for,” that are less “attempt to maintain some kind of discussion-bridge”, but, it seemed better to me to start with this one)
I agree with this (and think it’s good to periodically say all of this straightforwardly).
I don’t know that it’ll be particularly worth your time, but, the thing I was hoping for this post was to ratchet the conversation-re-anthropic forward in, like, “doublecrux-weighted-concreteness.” (i.e. your arguments here are reasonably crux-and-concrete, but don’t seem to be engaging much with the arguments in this post that seemed more novel and representative of where anthropic employees tend to be coming from, instead just repeated AFAICT your cached arguments against Anthropic)
I don’t have much hope of directly persuading Dario, but I feel some hope of persuading both current and future-prospective employees who aren’t starting from the same prior of “alignment is hard enough that this plan is just crazy”, and for that to have useful flow-through effects.
My experience talking at least with Zac and Drake has been “these are people with real models, who share many-but-not-all-MIRI-ish assumptions but don’t intuitively buy that the Anthropic’s downsides are high, and would respond to arguments that were doing more to bridge perspectives.” (I’m hoping they end up writing comments here outlining more of their perspective/cruxes, which they’d expressed interest in in the past, although I ended up shipping the post quickly without trying to line up everything)
I don’t have a strong belief that contributing to that conversation is a better use of your time than whatever else you’re doing, but it seemed sad to me for the conversation to not at least be attempted.
(I do also plan to write 1-2 posts that are more focused on “here’s where Anthropic/Dario have done things that seem actively bad to me and IMO are damning unless accounted for,” that are less “attempt to maintain some kind of discussion-bridge”, but, it seemed better to me to start with this one)