I’m not sure where to start with this but, I don’t think finding a conspiracy theory ridiculous is just a matter of pro-west bias, and that the correct position is “maybe it was a conspiracy theory, maybe it was just what it looks like”? You’d have to have some pretty iffy priors for that to work.
This actually raises an interesting point, although one not quite relevant to the original post:
Roughly speaking, we should expect people who live in non-Western areas to find conspiracy theories more plausible, because, well, conspiracy theories really are more likely where they live.
The Hebdo conspiracy theory is that a government initiated an attack on its own people, carried out by its own agents, who other government agents then killed, all in order to blacken their enemy’s name, it presumably not being considered sufficiently black already. This is the standard conspiracy theory that is heard in response to every notable outrage on domestic soil.
What examples does history record of this actually happening?
In this case, I actually hadn’t heard about the false flag conspiracy theories. I was thinking about the less extreme tendency of the foreign press to see the occurrence of blasphemy as being secretly orchestrated by Western governments, who them deny involvement and claim that they are just supporting the spontaneous actions of their citizens. My theory is that this will seem more plausible to people living in areas with more state control over the press.
For example, there was an American preacher who burned some Korans. The view from within the United States was this man was a low-status Southern Evangelical stereotype, a headache to the government, and a visible annoyance to the high-status people who really do love insulting Islam but were somehow stuck defending this guy instead of some more charismatic blasphemer. In the Islamic press, this guy was a practically a CIA agent/preacher of the Official American Church acting on Presidential orders, probably working with Israel to further some foreign policy aim. Because if he really was a headache to the government, why wasn’t he already in jail?
I agree and would like to add that my parents who lived in the USSR tell me that there many “spontaneous actions of by the citizens” were in fact orchestrated by the government. This was largely for the benefit of the western press who was perfectly willing to believe this (after all genuinely spontaneous actions happen in their countries all the time). And conversely someone living in a country that does this will be less inclined to believe in spontaneous citizen actions.
I don’t know about killing the agents, but there have been known examples of that kind of false flag terrorist attack. Probably the most famous is the Lavon Affair, but there’s also:
The Miami Showband murders, although that was carried out by rogue soldiers rather than centrally directed.
There have also been a number of false-flag incidents in which a government attacked its own people with terrorism, but, whether by luck or by intention, no-one died:
There are persistent and credible allegations that the DRS carried out false-flag terrorist attacks during the Algerian Civil War.
It is possible that the 1999 bombings in Russia were a false-flag attack, but this incident is so bitterly contested that it’s impossible for me to know what to make of these allegations.
It is also possible that there were other such incidents but where the false-flag activity went undetected.
Overall, such false-flag attacks seem to be extremely rare, but not unknown. They seem to normally occur in the context of an existing violent conflict. As we have no particular evidence that the Charlie Hebdo attacks were a false-flag operation, our prior that the French government was involved should be extremely low.
The Wikipedia page on false flag operations lists a couple of similar things, including some in the Algerian civil war where government agents pretended to be Islamist terrorists. So it doesn’t seem to be unheard of.
(In the present case, I think it’s awfully unlikely.)
No, it seems like the most respected theory is by the Turkish prime minister who thinks that the Mossad is responsible.
French citizens are not Israeli citizens. According to ex-MI5 Annie Machon the idea that the Mossad did a False Flag operation inside the UK was discussed within MI5 and some MI5 people like her believed it.
On the other hand the case in the UK had a lot of more means&motive then this case.
What examples does history record of this actually happening?
If you trust US history books then Nazis did burn the Reichstag. There are some arguments against that theory, but it’s accepted history.
A more modern case is the 1972 Peteano massacre done by Gladio troops in Italy.
The case of the Russian apartment bombings in 1999 is unclear. Wikipedia: “John McCain said that there remained “credible allegations that Russia’s FSB had a hand in carrying out these [Moscow apartment bombing] attacks”.
I’m not sure where to start with this but, I don’t think finding a conspiracy theory ridiculous is just a matter of pro-west bias, and that the correct position is “maybe it was a conspiracy theory, maybe it was just what it looks like”? You’d have to have some pretty iffy priors for that to work.
This actually raises an interesting point, although one not quite relevant to the original post:
Roughly speaking, we should expect people who live in non-Western areas to find conspiracy theories more plausible, because, well, conspiracy theories really are more likely where they live.
The Hebdo conspiracy theory is that a government initiated an attack on its own people, carried out by its own agents, who other government agents then killed, all in order to blacken their enemy’s name, it presumably not being considered sufficiently black already. This is the standard conspiracy theory that is heard in response to every notable outrage on domestic soil.
What examples does history record of this actually happening?
I can’t add much to the other comments.
In this case, I actually hadn’t heard about the false flag conspiracy theories. I was thinking about the less extreme tendency of the foreign press to see the occurrence of blasphemy as being secretly orchestrated by Western governments, who them deny involvement and claim that they are just supporting the spontaneous actions of their citizens. My theory is that this will seem more plausible to people living in areas with more state control over the press.
For example, there was an American preacher who burned some Korans. The view from within the United States was this man was a low-status Southern Evangelical stereotype, a headache to the government, and a visible annoyance to the high-status people who really do love insulting Islam but were somehow stuck defending this guy instead of some more charismatic blasphemer. In the Islamic press, this guy was a practically a CIA agent/preacher of the Official American Church acting on Presidential orders, probably working with Israel to further some foreign policy aim. Because if he really was a headache to the government, why wasn’t he already in jail?
I agree and would like to add that my parents who lived in the USSR tell me that there many “spontaneous actions of by the citizens” were in fact orchestrated by the government. This was largely for the benefit of the western press who was perfectly willing to believe this (after all genuinely spontaneous actions happen in their countries all the time). And conversely someone living in a country that does this will be less inclined to believe in spontaneous citizen actions.
I don’t know about killing the agents, but there have been known examples of that kind of false flag terrorist attack. Probably the most famous is the Lavon Affair, but there’s also:
Operation Himmler.
The Panda Bar Incident.
The Miami Showband murders, although that was carried out by rogue soldiers rather than centrally directed.
There have also been a number of false-flag incidents in which a government attacked its own people with terrorism, but, whether by luck or by intention, no-one died:
Operation Labrador.
The Mukden Incident.
Celle Hole.
There are also various well-known incidents that look like false flag terrorist attacks by a government on its own people, but which are disputed:
The Baghdad Bombings (very similar to the Lavon Affair, but still denied).
The Reichstag Fire.
There are persistent and credible allegations that the DRS carried out false-flag terrorist attacks during the Algerian Civil War.
It is possible that the 1999 bombings in Russia were a false-flag attack, but this incident is so bitterly contested that it’s impossible for me to know what to make of these allegations.
It is also possible that there were other such incidents but where the false-flag activity went undetected.
Overall, such false-flag attacks seem to be extremely rare, but not unknown. They seem to normally occur in the context of an existing violent conflict. As we have no particular evidence that the Charlie Hebdo attacks were a false-flag operation, our prior that the French government was involved should be extremely low.
The Wikipedia page on false flag operations lists a couple of similar things, including some in the Algerian civil war where government agents pretended to be Islamist terrorists. So it doesn’t seem to be unheard of.
(In the present case, I think it’s awfully unlikely.)
No, it seems like the most respected theory is by the Turkish prime minister who thinks that the Mossad is responsible.
French citizens are not Israeli citizens. According to ex-MI5 Annie Machon the idea that the Mossad did a False Flag operation inside the UK was discussed within MI5 and some MI5 people like her believed it.
On the other hand the case in the UK had a lot of more means&motive then this case.
If you trust US history books then Nazis did burn the Reichstag. There are some arguments against that theory, but it’s accepted history.
A more modern case is the 1972 Peteano massacre done by Gladio troops in Italy.
The case of the Russian apartment bombings in 1999 is unclear. Wikipedia: “John McCain said that there remained “credible allegations that Russia’s FSB had a hand in carrying out these [Moscow apartment bombing] attacks”.