Yeah, I think the title should be the best compression it can be, because for a lot of people, it’s what they’ll remember. But I understand not being eager to do it. It seems worth doing specifically because people seem to react to the title on its own. I definitely would think about what two-to-five words you want people saying when they think of it in order to correct as many misconceptions at once as possible—I’ve seen people, eg on reddit, pointing out your opinions have changed, so it’s not totally unknown. but people who are most inclined to be adversarial are the ones I’m most thinking need to be made to have a hard time rationalizing that you didn’t realize it.
Another scenario is just about as good for this purpose, probably. I’d strongly recommend making much more noise about intro-to-forecasting level stuff so that the first thing people who don’t get forecasts hear, eg on podcasts or by word of mouth, is the disclaimer about it intentionally being a maximum-likelihood-and-therefore-effectively-impossible no-surprises-happen scenario which will likely become incorrect quickly. You said it already, but most people who refer to it seem to use that very thing as a criticism! which is what leads me to say this.
Yeah, I think the title should be the best compression it can be, because for a lot of people, it’s what they’ll remember. But I understand not being eager to do it. It seems worth doing specifically because people seem to react to the title on its own. I definitely would think about what two-to-five words you want people saying when they think of it in order to correct as many misconceptions at once as possible—I’ve seen people, eg on reddit, pointing out your opinions have changed, so it’s not totally unknown. but people who are most inclined to be adversarial are the ones I’m most thinking need to be made to have a hard time rationalizing that you didn’t realize it.
Another scenario is just about as good for this purpose, probably. I’d strongly recommend making much more noise about intro-to-forecasting level stuff so that the first thing people who don’t get forecasts hear, eg on podcasts or by word of mouth, is the disclaimer about it intentionally being a maximum-likelihood-and-therefore-effectively-impossible no-surprises-happen scenario which will likely become incorrect quickly. You said it already, but most people who refer to it seem to use that very thing as a criticism! which is what leads me to say this.