I used a similar idea for some strike modeling that I posted earlier today (using the AIFP software efficiency framework), and when I measured the impact of shrinking present and future compute of the leading lab by 90% (along with an attack on the AI supply chain) it resulted in a delay to ASI of ~7.5 years for the U.S. and China, trending down to six months as you get closer to striking when ASI would have finished training.
I used a similar idea for some strike modeling that I posted earlier today (using the AIFP software efficiency framework), and when I measured the impact of shrinking present and future compute of the leading lab by 90% (along with an attack on the AI supply chain) it resulted in a delay to ASI of ~7.5 years for the U.S. and China, trending down to six months as you get closer to striking when ASI would have finished training.