Good question to ask, thank you. Using the AI futures model what kind of shift in actual time is this when it happens at what time. It might be included in the graphs already but I didn’t get it :).
I used a similar idea for some strike modeling that I posted earlier today (using the AIFP software efficiency framework), and when I measured the impact of shrinking present and future compute of the leading lab by 90% (along with an attack on the AI supply chain) it resulted in a delay to ASI of ~7.5 years for the U.S. and China, trending down to six months as you get closer to striking when ASI would have finished training.
Good question to ask, thank you.
Using the AI futures model what kind of shift in actual time is this when it happens at what time. It might be included in the graphs already but I didn’t get it :).
I used a similar idea for some strike modeling that I posted earlier today (using the AIFP software efficiency framework), and when I measured the impact of shrinking present and future compute of the leading lab by 90% (along with an attack on the AI supply chain) it resulted in a delay to ASI of ~7.5 years for the U.S. and China, trending down to six months as you get closer to striking when ASI would have finished training.