I didn’t see enough graphs, so I put together a spreadsheet for finding the hope function given a graph of the likelihood of finding what you’re looking for (and a prior for finding it). I think it’s right, but I’d appreciate someone sanity checking it.
I found it nice to be able to change the distribution of probability for the drawers and the prior probability and see what it does to the long term hope function.
I didn’t see enough graphs, so I put together a spreadsheet for finding the hope function given a graph of the likelihood of finding what you’re looking for (and a prior for finding it). I think it’s right, but I’d appreciate someone sanity checking it.
I found it nice to be able to change the distribution of probability for the drawers and the prior probability and see what it does to the long term hope function.