What seems to be a “true probability” is usually something subtly different—a parameter in a toy model of the world. Omega knows you survived juat as well as you did—its P(survived) is 1, true as can be. When you talk about “true probability”, you are talking about some property of a mental model of the cold war—the same category of thing as “dangerousness,” which makes comparing the two more like a direct analogy than a probabilistic update.
What seems to be a “true probability” is usually something subtly different—a parameter in a toy model of the world. Omega knows you survived juat as well as you did—its P(survived) is 1, true as can be. When you talk about “true probability”, you are talking about some property of a mental model of the cold war—the same category of thing as “dangerousness,” which makes comparing the two more like a direct analogy than a probabilistic update.
See also: probability is in the mind..