Dunno what the CDT answer would be (i.e., whether a given individual is more likely to die when cycling one mile or when driving one mile, all other things being equal—I suspect it depends on where you are, anyway), but it seems obvious to me that the RDT answer (i.e., if x% of the miles travelled in a town are cycled and (100 - x)% are driven, whether the expected total number of people dying in road accidents per mile travelled would increase or decrease with x) is that cycling is safer. And if you only care about your own life and are a CDTist, you shouldn’t vote unless there’s a non-negligible probability of your vote deciding the election, you should defect in the PD, etc.
Dunno what the CDT answer would be (i.e., whether a given individual is more likely to die when cycling one mile or when driving one mile, all other things being equal—I suspect it depends on where you are, anyway), but it seems obvious to me that the RDT answer (i.e., if x% of the miles travelled in a town are cycled and (100 - x)% are driven, whether the expected total number of people dying in road accidents per mile travelled would increase or decrease with x) is that cycling is safer. And if you only care about your own life and are a CDTist, you shouldn’t vote unless there’s a non-negligible probability of your vote deciding the election, you should defect in the PD, etc.
I don’t live my life as a CDTing agent (nor does anyone else, for that matter), but of the examples you listed, none seem particularly problematic for CDT. As far as I am concerned, not voting usually is the correct decision when your own decision doesn’t significantly influence others’ decisions (which for me, in a national election, it doesn’t). Also, actual PDs are extremely rare in everyday life, rather than, say, the indefinite iteration (with error) variety (and CDT seems to handle the latter just fine, as far as I know).
We should be careful to note that this is the RDT answer when you’re reasonably confident the other agents in your town are also RDT agents. I’m not so sure most of the people where I live even have much agency, let alone RDT agency.
I still feel kind of like an a**hole when in order to decrease the probability of killing myself I increase the probability of killing someone else by a much larger amount, even if they do the same. (And, before you tell me “So how comes you don’t take up some risky but well-paying job and buy mosquito nets with the salary?”, we’re talking about killing someone directly and in my town. If I accidentally killed someone by driving a car when I could have avoided that, I’d feel so awful for the rest of my life that I’d likely enjoy it half as much—defined as “I wouldn’t prefer n% probability of living such a life to (n/2)% probability of just dying”.)
(WOW. In markdown if I write a**hole the first asterisk is displayed normally and the second causes the rest of the text to be italicized. Is that a bug or a feature?)
I still feel kind of like an a**hole when in order to decrease the probability of killing myself I increase the probability of killing someone else by a much larger amount, even if they do the same.
Human social intuitions do seem to perform a lot better than CDT on a lot of these problems. To the extent that human social intuitions approximate RDT, the RDT-agent will vote, cooperate, and maybe even ride a bicycle.
Well, my self-censorship is kind-of intended to be tongue-in-cheek… (The reasoning is that in places where it’s inappropriate to write “asshole”, it’s likely to be inappropriate to write “a**hole” too, and when I see people who are OK with the latter but not the former my hypocrisy detector goes [insert appropriate onomatopoeia for fire alarm here] and I walk away.)
Is riding a bike really safer than driving per mile?
Dunno what the CDT answer would be (i.e., whether a given individual is more likely to die when cycling one mile or when driving one mile, all other things being equal—I suspect it depends on where you are, anyway), but it seems obvious to me that the RDT answer (i.e., if x% of the miles travelled in a town are cycled and (100 - x)% are driven, whether the expected total number of people dying in road accidents per mile travelled would increase or decrease with x) is that cycling is safer. And if you only care about your own life and are a CDTist, you shouldn’t vote unless there’s a non-negligible probability of your vote deciding the election, you should defect in the PD, etc.
I don’t live my life as a CDTing agent (nor does anyone else, for that matter), but of the examples you listed, none seem particularly problematic for CDT. As far as I am concerned, not voting usually is the correct decision when your own decision doesn’t significantly influence others’ decisions (which for me, in a national election, it doesn’t). Also, actual PDs are extremely rare in everyday life, rather than, say, the indefinite iteration (with error) variety (and CDT seems to handle the latter just fine, as far as I know).
We should be careful to note that this is the RDT answer when you’re reasonably confident the other agents in your town are also RDT agents. I’m not so sure most of the people where I live even have much agency, let alone RDT agency.
I still feel kind of like an a**hole when in order to decrease the probability of killing myself I increase the probability of killing someone else by a much larger amount, even if they do the same. (And, before you tell me “So how comes you don’t take up some risky but well-paying job and buy mosquito nets with the salary?”, we’re talking about killing someone directly and in my town. If I accidentally killed someone by driving a car when I could have avoided that, I’d feel so awful for the rest of my life that I’d likely enjoy it half as much—defined as “I wouldn’t prefer n% probability of living such a life to (n/2)% probability of just dying”.)
(WOW. In markdown if I write
a**holethe first asterisk is displayed normally and the second causes the rest of the text to be italicized. Is that a bug or a feature?)Human social intuitions do seem to perform a lot better than CDT on a lot of these problems. To the extent that human social intuitions approximate RDT, the RDT-agent will vote, cooperate, and maybe even ride a bicycle.
You could just try writing “asshole”—I’m pretty sure we’ve all heard the word before ;-)
Well, my self-censorship is kind-of intended to be tongue-in-cheek… (The reasoning is that in places where it’s inappropriate to write “asshole”, it’s likely to be inappropriate to write “a**hole” too, and when I see people who are OK with the latter but not the former my hypocrisy detector goes [insert appropriate onomatopoeia for fire alarm here] and I walk away.)