Semi-cooperation is one way for both sides to learn from each other—but so is poor infosec or even outright espionage. If both countries are leaking or spying enough, that might create a kind of uneasy balance (and transparency), even without formal agreements. It’s not exactly stable, but it could prevent either side from gaining a decisive lead.
In fact, sufficiently bad infosec might even make certain forms of cooperation and mutual verification easier. For instance, if both countries are considering setting up trusted data centers to make verifiable claims about AGI development, the fact that espionage already permeates much of the AI supply chain could paradoxically lower the bar for trust. In a world where perfect secrecy is already compromised, agreeing to “good enough” transparency might become more feasible.
Semi-cooperation is one way for both sides to learn from each other—but so is poor infosec or even outright espionage. If both countries are leaking or spying enough, that might create a kind of uneasy balance (and transparency), even without formal agreements. It’s not exactly stable, but it could prevent either side from gaining a decisive lead.
In fact, sufficiently bad infosec might even make certain forms of cooperation and mutual verification easier. For instance, if both countries are considering setting up trusted data centers to make verifiable claims about AGI development, the fact that espionage already permeates much of the AI supply chain could paradoxically lower the bar for trust. In a world where perfect secrecy is already compromised, agreeing to “good enough” transparency might become more feasible.