My personal investment thesis, formed after reading The Black Swan and The Big Short, is designed to take advantage of scope insensitivity.
The thesis is: Invest in a 1-10% chance of a 100x-1000x return
The reasoning is that other investors act the same when the chance of something is anywhere from 0.5% to 10%, and they act the same when the chance of something is anywhere from 10x to 1000x, so I’m buying underpriced investments.
I currently know of two investments that follow my thesis:
BitCoin
Yuri Milner and Ron Conway’s offer of $150k in convertible debt to all Y Combinator startups.
My personal investment thesis, formed after reading The Black Swan and The Big Short, is designed to take advantage of scope insensitivity.
The thesis is: Invest in a 1-10% chance of a 100x-1000x return
The reasoning is that other investors act the same when the chance of something is anywhere from 0.5% to 10%, and they act the same when the chance of something is anywhere from 10x to 1000x, so I’m buying underpriced investments.
I currently know of two investments that follow my thesis:
BitCoin
Yuri Milner and Ron Conway’s offer of $150k in convertible debt to all Y Combinator startups.