A. Utility maximization—if you donate a bunch of money to an effective charity and they save 100 lives, but in the course of delivering say, medical supplies to somewhere (which is how 100 lives were saved) one of the volunteers falls out of a boat and drowns:
1) It couldn’t have been predicted in advance.
2) The gains out weigh the benefits.
So, the real question shouldn’t be “Will something bad happen?” But “is it remotely plausible that the bad will outweigh the good?” Yes doing homework might, once in a million person years, result in some terrible tragedy, and if you’re really worried about paper then go electronic. The scenario I outlined sounds kind of ridiculous. Most actions don’t have big impacts by themselves/destroy the world (or have tremendous impact). If you determine the course of action with the highest utility, it might not be as high as you think, but it’s still the best thing you can do. (Using time effectively might involve lots of planning, but that might be less important (currently) than doing what you know you have to do right now.)
B. Is the “Skeptic Demon” helping? ’Cause if it’s never done anything useful, and if it’s getting on something it’s got on before, it probably doesn’t have anything new to say. (Writing stuff down might help. It seems like it’d be more useful to apply to inaction, if that makes sense?)
A few ideas:
A. Utility maximization—if you donate a bunch of money to an effective charity and they save 100 lives, but in the course of delivering say, medical supplies to somewhere (which is how 100 lives were saved) one of the volunteers falls out of a boat and drowns:
1) It couldn’t have been predicted in advance.
2) The gains out weigh the benefits.
So, the real question shouldn’t be “Will something bad happen?” But “is it remotely plausible that the bad will outweigh the good?” Yes doing homework might, once in a million person years, result in some terrible tragedy, and if you’re really worried about paper then go electronic. The scenario I outlined sounds kind of ridiculous. Most actions don’t have big impacts by themselves/destroy the world (or have tremendous impact). If you determine the course of action with the highest utility, it might not be as high as you think, but it’s still the best thing you can do. (Using time effectively might involve lots of planning, but that might be less important (currently) than doing what you know you have to do right now.)
B. Is the “Skeptic Demon” helping? ’Cause if it’s never done anything useful, and if it’s getting on something it’s got on before, it probably doesn’t have anything new to say. (Writing stuff down might help. It seems like it’d be more useful to apply to inaction, if that makes sense?)