I don’t disagree with you that this probably wouldn’t lead to extinction. That said, I’d expect birth rates to crater. The average teen already spends nearly 5 hours a day on current social media, and there’s every reason to expect AI social media that can generate something close to the most addictive video possible to be far more effective. Add in AI “boyfriends”/”girlfriends” that are far more attractive, supportive, etc. than any human, and many of the biological impulses that drive people to make families are diverted away from making real relationships and families. Only people with fairly strong desires for making real families and luddites would have much chance of overcoming the strong influences against it.
My confidence here is decent, but not amazing. Assuming the scenario happens roughly as described otherwise, I’d give roughly a 70% chance of a massive (as in far worse than currently predicted) population crash happening, but not extinction on (direct) account of it. Obviously, this is heavily contingent upon how addictive AI social media could be, which could be less or far more than described.
I don’t disagree with you that this probably wouldn’t lead to extinction. That said, I’d expect birth rates to crater. The average teen already spends nearly 5 hours a day on current social media, and there’s every reason to expect AI social media that can generate something close to the most addictive video possible to be far more effective. Add in AI “boyfriends”/”girlfriends” that are far more attractive, supportive, etc. than any human, and many of the biological impulses that drive people to make families are diverted away from making real relationships and families. Only people with fairly strong desires for making real families and luddites would have much chance of overcoming the strong influences against it.
My confidence here is decent, but not amazing. Assuming the scenario happens roughly as described otherwise, I’d give roughly a 70% chance of a massive (as in far worse than currently predicted) population crash happening, but not extinction on (direct) account of it. Obviously, this is heavily contingent upon how addictive AI social media could be, which could be less or far more than described.