After some conversation with Fable, it said to me that uniform prior over probabilities in Laplace, and being in the middle of actually existing observers in Gott—are basically the same idea. So the mechanism is that randomness put me in the middle. But this requires the reality of future.
Carter in his book about extinction spent a lot of pages to show that this requires that unitary future do actually exist or at least deterministic, so the sampling process is happening from the future too. This contradicts my MWI intuitions (But may be can solved via distribution analyses)
I think the mechanism is different, and is based on idea that there are many different civilizations and we measure their average age (universal doomsday argument). If we лтцш average age, we can also extrapolate it on us. For example, if I ask a random person on a street what is his age and he said that his age 47, I can conclude that human average age is several decades years—and thus my average age is the same. This trick escapes direct “reading” of the information from the future.
After some conversation with Fable, it said to me that uniform prior over probabilities in Laplace, and being in the middle of actually existing observers in Gott—are basically the same idea. So the mechanism is that randomness put me in the middle. But this requires the reality of future.
Carter in his book about extinction spent a lot of pages to show that this requires that unitary future do actually exist or at least deterministic, so the sampling process is happening from the future too. This contradicts my MWI intuitions (But may be can solved via distribution analyses)
I think the mechanism is different, and is based on idea that there are many different civilizations and we measure their average age (universal doomsday argument). If we лтцш average age, we can also extrapolate it on us. For example, if I ask a random person on a street what is his age and he said that his age 47, I can conclude that human average age is several decades years—and thus my average age is the same. This trick escapes direct “reading” of the information from the future.