TED-AI is defined by Kokotajlo-Lifland as Top Expert Dominating AI. However, I struggle to understand the origins of @Toby_Ord’s distribution. I suspect that his sources for longer timelines are as hardto rely on as is Cotra’s heavily criticized estimate or the fact that “all the revenue growth in the industry has corresponded to a scaling up of the supply of inference compute so that revenue per H100 equivalent has remained fairly constant.” Unlike things like the Epoch Capabilities Index as dependent on training compute or the ARC-AGI leaderboard per money spent (which might imply that no possible CoT-based system is far more effective at ARC-AGI than Gemini 3 Flash and Gemini-3.1 Pro), Ergil’s argument doesn’t actually claim anything about capabilities of AI systems which don’t even exist yet.
TED-AI is defined by Kokotajlo-Lifland as Top Expert Dominating AI. However, I struggle to understand the origins of @Toby_Ord’s distribution. I suspect that his sources for longer timelines are as hard to rely on as is Cotra’s heavily criticized estimate or the fact that “all the revenue growth in the industry has corresponded to a scaling up of the supply of inference compute so that revenue per H100 equivalent has remained fairly constant.” Unlike things like the Epoch Capabilities Index as dependent on training compute or the ARC-AGI leaderboard per money spent (which might imply that no possible CoT-based system is far more effective at ARC-AGI than Gemini 3 Flash and Gemini-3.1 Pro), Ergil’s argument doesn’t actually claim anything about capabilities of AI systems which don’t even exist yet.