I think Eliezer may have been too modest(!) in describing the treatment as unfair. I think I recognize Startup Founder 1, and that looks very much like a conversation I’d expect the two of them to have.
I expect that Eliezer had more evidence than he conveys for the hypothesis that Startup Founder 1 was engaging in blind empiricism. But I have doubts about whether Eliezer was wise to reject hypotheses about why Startup Founder 1′s advice might be right. Here are some mistakes that can be avoided by the “release early, release often” attitude:
creating overly elaborate hypotheses, rather than looking for hypotheses that can be tested cheaply.
being overconfident in one’s ability to model users.
identifying with one’s announced plans in a way that leads to them becoming a substitute for implementing the plans; I suspect this sometimes creates an aversion to exposing the plans to possible falsification.
I imagine that Startup Founder 1 suspected that Eliezer was making at least one of these mistakes, but couldn’t articulate strong evidence for those suspicions.
I think Eliezer may have been too modest(!) in describing the treatment as unfair. I think I recognize Startup Founder 1, and that looks very much like a conversation I’d expect the two of them to have.
I expect that Eliezer had more evidence than he conveys for the hypothesis that Startup Founder 1 was engaging in blind empiricism. But I have doubts about whether Eliezer was wise to reject hypotheses about why Startup Founder 1′s advice might be right. Here are some mistakes that can be avoided by the “release early, release often” attitude:
creating overly elaborate hypotheses, rather than looking for hypotheses that can be tested cheaply.
being overconfident in one’s ability to model users.
identifying with one’s announced plans in a way that leads to them becoming a substitute for implementing the plans; I suspect this sometimes creates an aversion to exposing the plans to possible falsification.
I imagine that Startup Founder 1 suspected that Eliezer was making at least one of these mistakes, but couldn’t articulate strong evidence for those suspicions.