If your ammo’s rusting after only a decade, you didn’t store it well enough—better to learn that now than 10 years after the collapse. In any case, you should have two types of stored items: short-term supplies, maybe a year or two worth, and long-term sustainable supplies, for indefinite use.
The short-term stuff you should cycle through as you use it for practice, daily eating, etc. it never gets more than a year or two old anyway. The long-term stuff is things you expect to maintain, repair, make parts for, etc. This inspection and maintenance needs to be part of your routine as well.
Or, acknowledge that you’re not willing to put the effort in for long-term preparations, and just keep a few weeks’ stash. This is all short-term, and should be used/inspected/replaced appropriately.
I don’t actually think Laplace’s formulas work for chaotic systems like global ecologies, economies, or cultures. Induction fails when you can’t map future events very well. If you flip a coin 100 times, what can that tell you about an upcoming die roll? You can’t step in the same river twice, and it’s very hard to find the right categories of past events to predict future ones.
If your ammo’s rusting after only a decade, you didn’t store it well enough—better to learn that now than 10 years after the collapse. In any case, you should have two types of stored items: short-term supplies, maybe a year or two worth, and long-term sustainable supplies, for indefinite use.
The short-term stuff you should cycle through as you use it for practice, daily eating, etc. it never gets more than a year or two old anyway. The long-term stuff is things you expect to maintain, repair, make parts for, etc. This inspection and maintenance needs to be part of your routine as well.
Or, acknowledge that you’re not willing to put the effort in for long-term preparations, and just keep a few weeks’ stash. This is all short-term, and should be used/inspected/replaced appropriately.
I don’t actually think Laplace’s formulas work for chaotic systems like global ecologies, economies, or cultures. Induction fails when you can’t map future events very well. If you flip a coin 100 times, what can that tell you about an upcoming die roll? You can’t step in the same river twice, and it’s very hard to find the right categories of past events to predict future ones.