I’m wrestling through the idea now, though, that it may not be important for me to ever consciously consider the value of my all-things-considered p(doom), so long as it’s high enough that I find it unacceptable to just let other people handle it. Over time, I have found myself motivated by the dire situation, and I have found myself motivated by rays of hope, but neither change what I ought to do. So why think about it?
That said, I am merely human. Worse yet, I’m a forecaster. I feel compelled to track that target. Watching my p(doom) go from 70% to 80% made me think extra hard about whether I was doing the most helpful things I could. Watching it go from 80% to 60% made me more confident that my chosen actions can have their intended result. Or is it the other way around? Oh well. Number shiny.
I’m wrestling through the idea now, though, that it may not be important for me to ever consciously consider the value of my all-things-considered p(doom), so long as it’s high enough that I find it unacceptable to just let other people handle it. Over time, I have found myself motivated by the dire situation, and I have found myself motivated by rays of hope, but neither change what I ought to do. So why think about it?
That said, I am merely human. Worse yet, I’m a forecaster. I feel compelled to track that target. Watching my p(doom) go from 70% to 80% made me think extra hard about whether I was doing the most helpful things I could. Watching it go from 80% to 60% made me more confident that my chosen actions can have their intended result. Or is it the other way around? Oh well. Number shiny.