Thanks Julian, that’s very thoughtful. I’ve now read your post on this and I thought it was good.
I’m definitely less bullish than you are about getting λ>1, though it may be possible, especially in cases where agent diversity is important (and where that can be implemented somehow) or where it is hard for a single agent to try out lots of different approaches successively without them contaminating each other.
You may be interested to know that Phil Trammell is thinking about something similar to increasing λ in the essay below. In fact he sees understanding parallelisability as key to understanding the prospects on an intelligence explosion:
Ah, a much more formal take that decomposes the relevant factors, I gather. I’ll look into that, thanks!
Edit: also FYI I haven’t looked deeply yet, but Opus 5.5 System Card would seem to still show λ in the 0.5 to 0.7 range, like I imagine you would predict.
Thanks Julian, that’s very thoughtful. I’ve now read your post on this and I thought it was good.
I’m definitely less bullish than you are about getting λ>1, though it may be possible, especially in cases where agent diversity is important (and where that can be implemented somehow) or where it is hard for a single agent to try out lots of different approaches successively without them contaminating each other.
You may be interested to know that Phil Trammell is thinking about something similar to increasing λ in the essay below. In fact he sees understanding parallelisability as key to understanding the prospects on an intelligence explosion:
https://philiptrammell.com/static/Parallelizability.pdf
Ah, a much more formal take that decomposes the relevant factors, I gather. I’ll look into that, thanks!
Edit: also FYI I haven’t looked deeply yet, but Opus 5.5 System Card would seem to still show λ in the 0.5 to 0.7 range, like I imagine you would predict.