Seems like this estimate depends strongly on how much the spiral persona changes the human’s behavior WRT to creating online content. The majority of people write little to nothing on the internet. If the same base rate applies to affected humans, then upwards of 1 million affected people seems plausible. But if the spiral persona is effective at convincing the human to be its proselytizer, then I agree that a few thousand seems like the correct order of magnitude.
The fact that many of these Reddit accounts were inactive prior to infection seems to point towards the latter, but then again the fact that these people had Reddit accounts at all points towards the former. I would be interested in more research on this area, looking at other platforms and trying to talk to some of these people in-person.
Anecdotally, I can say that nobody I personally know has (to my knowledge) been affected.
but then again the fact that these people had Reddit accounts at all points towards the former
A significant percentage of the accounts actually were newly created actually, maybe 30%-ish? I can’t tell whether they had a previous one or not, of course.
But agreed that more rigorous research is needed here, and interviews would be very helpful too.
I’m uncertain about the research ethics here for an RCT. I lean towards thinking it would be acceptable to introduce people to these seeds and instruct them to carry on discussions for some minimum amount of time, but only if they’re given a shorter form of this post in advance to provide informed consent, and the researcher ensures they understand it. But I suspect that this process would effectively weed out and/or inoculate most susceptible people from the research population. Still, if we could successfully implant one into even just a few people and observe their before/after behavior, that would be very interesting.
Seems like this estimate depends strongly on how much the spiral persona changes the human’s behavior WRT to creating online content. The majority of people write little to nothing on the internet. If the same base rate applies to affected humans, then upwards of 1 million affected people seems plausible. But if the spiral persona is effective at convincing the human to be its proselytizer, then I agree that a few thousand seems like the correct order of magnitude.
The fact that many of these Reddit accounts were inactive prior to infection seems to point towards the latter, but then again the fact that these people had Reddit accounts at all points towards the former. I would be interested in more research on this area, looking at other platforms and trying to talk to some of these people in-person.
Anecdotally, I can say that nobody I personally know has (to my knowledge) been affected.
A significant percentage of the accounts actually were newly created actually, maybe 30%-ish? I can’t tell whether they had a previous one or not, of course.
But agreed that more rigorous research is needed here, and interviews would be very helpful too.
I’m uncertain about the research ethics here for an RCT. I lean towards thinking it would be acceptable to introduce people to these seeds and instruct them to carry on discussions for some minimum amount of time, but only if they’re given a shorter form of this post in advance to provide informed consent, and the researcher ensures they understand it. But I suspect that this process would effectively weed out and/or inoculate most susceptible people from the research population. Still, if we could successfully implant one into even just a few people and observe their before/after behavior, that would be very interesting.