To my memory it’s explicitly encouraged. I can’t find a citation for this but Google Answers hallucinates the same recollection:
AI Overview
+9
On Manifold, a prediction market platform that uses play money, insider trading is not prohibited because it is viewed as a feature that helps reveal information more quickly. This differs fundamentally from traditional financial markets, where insider trading is illegal and strictly regulated.
<bla bla bla slop>
I think maybe I’m misremembering EY inviting someone to insider trade on one of his markets? In any case I do not mind if you “insider trade” my market. Part of the point of a prediction market is to get the calibrated probability of an event so if you have pertinent information and trade on it that tells me most of what I need to know even if you don’t want to say what your reasoning is explicitly.
Is insider trading allowed on Manifold?
With a few exceptions mentioned in their community guidelines, yes. It’s widespread in fact, and accepted as a legitimate strategy.
To my memory it’s explicitly encouraged. I can’t find a citation for this but Google Answers hallucinates the same recollection:
I think maybe I’m misremembering EY inviting someone to insider trade on one of his markets? In any case I do not mind if you “insider trade” my market. Part of the point of a prediction market is to get the calibrated probability of an event so if you have pertinent information and trade on it that tells me most of what I need to know even if you don’t want to say what your reasoning is explicitly.