Though I like the spirit of this, it doesn’t quite refute the certainty of provenance-erasure, at least in theory
Oh indeed, like I said, I don’t think this really undoes your main point.
I think there’s something going on where a probability distribution of the future can’t ever be perfectly tight, and being as brains and social systems and the weather—three of the highest-impact interacting components of earth’s combined dynamical system—are all chaotic, it is effectively guaranteed that any finitely intelligent predictor of the future will be unable to perfectly constrain its predictions. (it can do something, and it can massively exceed us in terms of our sit-in-a-room-and-think prediction capability; but it can never be a perfect copy of the future ahead of time. I think. maybe. ask MIRI.)
so assuming that there’s no galaxy brain shortcut that lets you exactly predict the future, even having a perfectly calibrated distribution, your distribution is not as narrow as the timeline you end up on. and if superdeterminism is false (which is the current default expectation of physicists), quantum also is guaranteed to surprise you. you accumulate more information about what timeline you’re in and not continuing to observe it makes you unaware of goings on.
Oh indeed, like I said, I don’t think this really undoes your main point.
I think there’s something going on where a probability distribution of the future can’t ever be perfectly tight, and being as brains and social systems and the weather—three of the highest-impact interacting components of earth’s combined dynamical system—are all chaotic, it is effectively guaranteed that any finitely intelligent predictor of the future will be unable to perfectly constrain its predictions. (it can do something, and it can massively exceed us in terms of our sit-in-a-room-and-think prediction capability; but it can never be a perfect copy of the future ahead of time. I think. maybe. ask MIRI.)
so assuming that there’s no galaxy brain shortcut that lets you exactly predict the future, even having a perfectly calibrated distribution, your distribution is not as narrow as the timeline you end up on. and if superdeterminism is false (which is the current default expectation of physicists), quantum also is guaranteed to surprise you. you accumulate more information about what timeline you’re in and not continuing to observe it makes you unaware of goings on.