I liked the format, but let me pick on a particular point. What makes you confident that in seven years China will be meaningfully ahead of the West? My intuition is that the West still has the best education and economic centers to drive R&D and those have significant moats that don’t get shaken up that quickly. You’re pretty vague about your justifications other that impressive levels of progress. I see it as a “rising tides float all boats” situation where progress is being accelerated everywhere by open sharing, an economically conducive environment for AI research, and availability of compute.
What I’m confident in is that they’re more likely to be ahead than now or within a couple years. As I said, otherwise my confidence is ~35% by 2035 that China catches up (or become better), which is not huge?
My reasoning is that they’ve been better at optimizing ~everything than the US mostly because of their centralization and norms (not caring too much about human rights helps optimizing) which is why I think it’s likely that they’ll catch up.
I liked the format, but let me pick on a particular point. What makes you confident that in seven years China will be meaningfully ahead of the West? My intuition is that the West still has the best education and economic centers to drive R&D and those have significant moats that don’t get shaken up that quickly. You’re pretty vague about your justifications other that impressive levels of progress. I see it as a “rising tides float all boats” situation where progress is being accelerated everywhere by open sharing, an economically conducive environment for AI research, and availability of compute.
What I’m confident in is that they’re more likely to be ahead than now or within a couple years. As I said, otherwise my confidence is ~35% by 2035 that China catches up (or become better), which is not huge?
My reasoning is that they’ve been better at optimizing ~everything than the US mostly because of their centralization and norms (not caring too much about human rights helps optimizing) which is why I think it’s likely that they’ll catch up.