How did the date 2035 get attached to the Forethought prediction? They are predicting a century of progress in a decade once we hit transformative AI as far as I can tell, not a century of progress in the decade from the date of prediction.
Ah, I was confused by statements such as the following:
Now, imagine if all of those developments were instead compressed into the decade after 1925.
Now imagine all the scientific, intellectual and technological developments that you would expect to see by the year 2125, if technological progress continued over the next century at roughly the same rate that it did over the last century. And then imagine all of those developments occurring over the course of just ten years.
Have edited it to one about training scale-ups. “The biggest training runs can continue to scale for roughly another 10,000x increase before running into power and other limits (likely well within a decade from now)...”
How did the date 2035 get attached to the Forethought prediction? They are predicting a century of progress in a decade once we hit transformative AI as far as I can tell, not a century of progress in the decade from the date of prediction.
Ah, I was confused by statements such as the following:
Have edited it to one about training scale-ups. “The biggest training runs can continue to scale for roughly another 10,000x increase before running into power and other limits (likely well within a decade from now)...”