Thinking about this is somewhat interesting. I noticed I was going to gloss over it after reading and then noticed, no, wait, given the costs I’m currently paying to avoid getting sick I shouldn’t dismiss something like this due to status quo bias etc. On looking at the white paper, the potential benefit drops a lot for me since the benefit is uncertain enough that it wouldn’t enable changed behaviors. So this would purely be the case of trading off the concrete costs for tail risk reductions. I think the next step would be to establish some sort of reference class in order to try to make it comparable to other risks like in the covid risk calculator.
Thinking about this is somewhat interesting. I noticed I was going to gloss over it after reading and then noticed, no, wait, given the costs I’m currently paying to avoid getting sick I shouldn’t dismiss something like this due to status quo bias etc. On looking at the white paper, the potential benefit drops a lot for me since the benefit is uncertain enough that it wouldn’t enable changed behaviors. So this would purely be the case of trading off the concrete costs for tail risk reductions. I think the next step would be to establish some sort of reference class in order to try to make it comparable to other risks like in the covid risk calculator.